Category: Winning Ways for your Guild Ball Plays

Chapter 40: And Finally… Ox

It’s pretty fitting that I bookend this series of articles with Ox. Ox was the first character for Season 4 that I wrote about (because he was the first Butchers model spoiled). And now I end my articles for season 4 Butchers (until Cooks come out) with veteran Ox.

First thing about VOx is that he lost his Get stuck in character play to just gain the new and improved Rowdy. So now he can gain gang ups, but no crowding out penalty. That gets rid of the guild ball on his playbook. Other changes to his playbook are that 1 damage on column 1 is now momentous, and his tackle is not momentous now (no surprise there). Already those are big improvements. Let’s talk about what he lost. He no longer heals himself and no longer has a discount on charging (the Cooks might have something to do with the last one). Instead of healing at the end of activation, and doing damage to those that attack him, Steamforged has kind of combined those two. VOx now does 3 (3!) damage to every model in his melee range at the end of his activation. He doesn’t even have to make attacks to use this, it just happens. His Owner aura has also gone up to 6″ to match the Captain version, but he still has to make a take out.

I don’t have a lot to say about him other than he’s better at what I think he was supposed to do before. His damage is the same as last time I wrote about him (here), but now he will make momentum each time he chooses damage (got to love momentous damage on 1). That extra 3 damage at the end of his activation is really good. I can see that finishing off a model or two and activating the Owner aura to benefit the rest of the team. Fillet loves the Owner aura. It’s time to try him out again, and see if he will make the team. And if not now, Cooks are on the horizon and it will be time to reevaluate each model again.

Chapter 39: Tenderiser? I barely know… there is no way I haven’t already used that joke

Tenderiser has undergone quite a few changes. First he’s gone to 6 TAC and had his playbook reworked to be 6 columns (including a momentous 5 damage on 6). He’s lost seismic kick, but his kick stat changed to 2/6″ (up a die, but down 2″). He now generates 2 influence (by itself this would probably mean he saw the table more for some players). Overall, he’s a lot better. Loses an character play I never used with him. Can be a beater when he needs to be. He lost the combo results on his playbook (no damage push, or damage KD), which I think I will miss, but I think he does what you want him to do better, stand near the goal to make things more difficult for the opposing team.

First, let’s look at his damage potential, if he decides to get into the fight.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/03.606.55
2/1,3/02.745.36
2/2,3/1,4/02.024.16
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/01.342.78
Weighted Average:1.663.43

He does comparable damage to Gutter, a little less on the charge than she does, but pretty similar all around. This puts him in the class below what Boiler and Shank do without buffs. This is still not bad damage, most guilds would probably like someone that does this kind of damage, but not the cream of the crop for Butchers. All his damage is momentous, so he should convert any attack to momentum, unless you are going for a KD or something else.

Speaking of that KD, let’s take a look at it.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.13%100.00%
2/1,3/090.83%99.73%
2/2,3/1,4/067.59%96.89%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/033.63%80.45%
Weighted Average:49.01%87.40%

He’s got a decent KD on an attack, but the real magic happens with a charge. He’s very likely to get the KD on the charge, meaning that he can put a pretty hard stop to a goal run on a Rush Keeper charge, if your opponent lets you. One of the big problems with Tenderiser is that he never gets to do what he wants. People have figured out how to get around counter charge abilities and it doesn’t even take them that long to figure out, so it’s not even using much of their clock. Tenderiser may be better off coming out of the goal and being an active member of the team, especially late game. This feels weird to me since I have traditionally picked him as a model I don’t have to allocate anything to so I can give it all to other models. That might be where I land on him again, but at least he generates 2 influence now so it’s easier to pick him instead of someone else to stand there and do nothing.

Last thing I want to get to is his chance to ground pound on a charge. This is a pretty good result since it includes damage, a push, and KD to multiple models in range.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.13%100.00%
2/1,3/090.83%99.73%
2/2,3/1,4/067.59%96.89%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/033.63%80.45%
Weighted Average:49.01%87.40%

If this is your goal, you will want to target a model with 4 defense or lower to get it off, especially if he’s going to be crowded out. I don’t see this coming up all that often, but it’s there in case you need it.

I don’t think there is any denying that Tenderiser got better. It’s now definitely possible to play him as an active member of the team, but I think I’ll end up keeping him influence free and by the goal, at least with Fillet. I can see Ox hanging back and waiting for the enemy team (if he has the ball) and Tenderiser joining the fray once it arrives.

Chapter 38 – The one where Ross gets Shanked

Let’s dive right into new (old) Shank. Shank can now hold 4 influence again (and still generates 2), but his tackle moved up one column and became non-momentous. He’s probably better than he was before. A little worse at tackling, but that extra influence is exactly what the Butchers players have been asking for.

I haven’t done a real article on Shank, so here we go. First, damage output.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/02.944.87
2/1,3/02.683.94
2/2,3/1,4/02.233.24
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/01.662.58
Weighted Average:1.922.90

If you’ve been playing Guild Ball long enough, the results here are not much of a surprise. Shank is likely to do 2 damage on an attack and 3 on a charge. He should get 1 momentum for each swing. Two damage a swing takes models out, though, and that’s before any buffs. In Ox’s aura, for example, Shank gets an extra expected damage on attacks and charges. Same for Tooled Up. Stacking buffs is a good thing. If Shank, or anyone else, attacks with tooled up, in Owner, against a model with Butchery, he gets +3 damage. Shank would likely take a model from 15 to 0 and still have an influence to Where did he go? away from the fight if he was fully loaded. Shank’s strength though, with his 2″ melee and dodges all around his playbook, is that he can put damage on several models, or get to models that are normally hard to get to (like Obulus). He’s a good finisher. I’ve played him a couple times at the time of this writing and in one game (with Fillet, so he didn’t really have buffs) he took Cosset out after she came back on the pitch and scored a goal in one activation. Cosset is one of the easiest models to take out, but it shows that with the right target Shank can take out those models that come back like he used to, speeding up the game.

Now, let’s talk about the change to his playbook. His tackle is now higher. Here’s the chance of getting that tackle.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.13%100.00%
2/1,3/090.83%99.73%
2/2,3/1,4/067.59%96.89%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/033.63%80.45%
Weighted Average:49.01%87.40%

Against the models that normally hold the ball, Shank will only be able to get a tackle with a charge. This is actually a pretty big change since before he had a decent chance of getting it off any player. Look for opportunities when the ball ends up on a lower defense model for Shank to get in there and take the ball. He’s one of the best models to take advantage of small breaks in the enemy defense on the team, for goal scoring or for trying to take out weak/squishy models.

The last thing I want to talk about in this article is Shank’s ability to make it easier for other models to get take outs. That ability is Thousand Cuts. Here’s the chance of getting it on a charge (and attack is very unlikely, but if you get it you should consider taking it if you are going to make any more attacks into that model).

Defense/Armor
Chance on Charge
2/099.76%
2/1,3/093.70%
2/2,3/1,4/073.82%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/036.24%
Weighted Average:52.92%

The best use for this is to trigger it on someone with lower defense (it’s likely on 3 or 4 defense models) and put it on another, higher defensive model within 6″. Charging into a 2/1 to put thousand cuts on a 5/0 makes it really easy to kill that 5/0 with someone, possibly including Shank himself. I have found myself in the past no choosing this result because of it’s low damage, but I need to remember that I can target someone else, and that -2 defense is a pretty big deal that will lead to a lot more damage if I have other attacks I can get to the target.

Now that Shank can hold 4 influence again I’ll be putting him back on the table. I like the updated playstyle for Butchers, fast and dangerous, and Shank embodies that pretty well.

Chapter 37: The Gutter One

I never got around to writing a veteran Gutter article when she came out, so this will be a full on article with all the bells and whistles.

First, her changes. Gutter’s tackle goes from column 4 to column 2, which is a change in the opposite direction with other Butchers changes, but becomes non-momentous, a change similar to other Butchers. She picks up a double push on column 4. Grapple Hook changed to names to Route One. And, finally, Gutter trades in Resolute for Sweeping Charge.

The last is a pretty big change. It means that if you are going to use Gutter you are going to want her to charge, and it’s going to affect her charge damage a lot. So, let’s take a look at that damage output.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/0,2/12.377.49
3/0,3/1,2/21.916.67
4/0,2/3,3/2,4/11.485.76
5/01.084.71
Weighted Average:1.275.20

Gutter does a momentous 1 to most models in the game. If they have 3 combined defense after anatomical it’s usually 2, but a lot of those models have tough hide. Her normal damage output isn’t that great. Her charge output is pretty good, though. She will usually do at least 5 damage to her target, and will do 3 damage to any other models in her melee range. Be careful since it doesn’t say enemy for that charge damage. Whatever the result, if it’s damage it’s going to be momentous.

Also, under Ox, or any other damage buff, you can add +1 damage to attacks and +2 damage to charges and be pretty close to what damage to expect from Gutter.

Her other playbook results are what you would expect. Don’t expect a KD, except on a charge. Same with double push, since it’s the same column. Route one has about a 50/50 chance to get off against the majority of models (the ones that have a 4 combined defense after anatomical). The single push is pretty likely, which helps some with counters. Route one is a decent way to get out of melee on a counter. Don’t do it if they only have 1 attack after, though, since they will get the equivalent of that attack, but at +2 TAC because it’s a parting blow.

Really, Gutter doesn’t do that much damage, except on a charge. Boiler, Shank, or anyone else with 2 damage on 2 will do more than her, even with anatomical precision. 2″ melee is nice to have for a lot of reasons, but I’m having a hard time wanting to fit her in to my lineups with the other options out there. It’s going to come down to how many 2″ melee models I need, because she’s almost last on the 2″ list.

Chapter 36: Meathook’s playing football in someone’s backyard

The ball is really squishy, made of foam, so the kids won’t get hurt. Meathook has a nerf, is what I’m saying.

Not that this comes as a surprise. She was considered an “auto-include” by most of the online community. And really, the changes that were made won’t keep her from getting played. Let’s go over them.

First, she lost smell blood (the +1 damage and +0/+2″ to charges against bleeding targets). With this change I think it’s more likely that Meathook doesn’t do follow up attacks on the same model. Her damage output isn’t very good without that extra +1 damage.

Another change is that her tackle has moved from 2 to 4 and became non-momentous. She also lost her other tackle that had 2 damage attached. Not a surprise since a bunch of other Butchers saw a similar treatment. This one hurt me a little since I’ve used her to steal the ball a lot more than I thought I would have.

Finally, hooked no longer applies a -1 defense that can never be cleared by the opponent, instead it applies snared (and the bleed was rolled in there as well). Being able to clear this certainly hurts the Butchers player, but it was the only way to lower defense that couldn’t be cleared, so not surprising that it changed. She still has the -4/-4 move as a heroic, so she can really lower speed a lot now.

There isn’t a lot of extra math to do with Meathook. My last article on her went over damage (just look at what she is base). Momentum is very likely with momentous damage on 1, even against high defense. She still has tooled up, causes bleed, and lowers defense (even if it may not last as long), so she’s still going to see play, especially with Fillet. I’m thinking she may not make every Ox lineup now, though. I will be experimenting to figure out what I’m going to play.

Chapter 35: New Blood Brisket

Veteran Brisket is supposed to be the “fightier” Brisket, and that’s mostly true now. She retains the 1 influence charges while within 8 of a board edge. She trades Above and Beyond, a goal scoring rule, for Field Medic, a fighting rule. Field Medic allows you to clear conditions on a model within 4″ any time Brisket does damage to an opponent, encouraging her to deal damage more often.

Her playbook has changed quite a bit, too. She no longer has momentous tackle, but does have it non-momentously on 1, and momentous Ball’s Gone on 2 (which is better than a tackle). She also only has one combined result now, a non-momentous Ball’s Gone double dodge on 4, which is a pretty good result. Vet Brisket is less of a pure striker than oBrisket, but still able to do some ball handling and scoring. Let’s take a look at some of the math.

First, of course, is her damage output.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/02.374.49
2/1,3/01.893.71
2/2,3/1,4/01.442.92
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/01.012.04
Weighted Average:1.222.45

This Brisket actually has less expected damage on an attack than the original because her 2 damage isn’t until column 3 (compared to column 2 on original). She does have higher potential, though, since she actually gets to 3 damage. You see this mostly when she charges. Her expected damage on charges is more than original Brisket. AND! Brisket can still sometimes charge for 1 influence, making her charge cost the same as an attack, but more effective, obviously. VBrisket has momentous damage on 1, so she’s also very likely to get momentum each time she attacks. And don’t forget that each time she picks damage she gets to clear conditions on a model within 4″.

Even though vBrisket isn’t as good at scoring as the original, she’s still decent. a 3/8″ kick is pretty good, and Ball’s Gone is better than a tackle. It gets around close control (awesome!) and let’s you pass the ball for free, if you want. The pass is optional. Let’s look at her chance of getting that momentous Ball’s Gone.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.67%100.00%
2/1,3/095.69%99.92%
2/2,3/1,4/079.93%98.82%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/050.42%90.20%
Weighted Average:63.52%93.83%

The Ball’s Gone on two is at worst a 50/50, and that’s against 5 defense on a normal attack. That’s actually not that bad of a chance, and it get’s better from there. On a charge, that might cost 1, the worst chance is 90%, so it should happen most of the time. She’s pretty good at stripping the ball off of models. And given the fact that most Butchers that had momentous tackles don’t any more, it’s nice to have a model that can get the ball if needed. Opens up the chance to score a goal and make the game a little easier to win.

You know what would be better than Ball’s Gone? A Ball’s Gone result with a double dodge. Hey, she has that! It’s not momentous, but is a very good result anyway. Here’s the chance.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/080.38%99.89%
2/1,3/044.78%96.50%
2/2,3/1,4/014.20%82.28%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/02.98%48.25%
Weighted Average:9.53%63.13%

You are probably not going to get this result except on a charge. I’ve had games with both Briskets where I charge in the attempt to steal the ball, try to get dodges to get away, and make a goal. This result is great for that. As long as that 2″ dodge gets you in range of making a goal then there isn’t much that can stop this, especially if she gets out of the opponent’s melee range so they can’t counter.

I’ve been playing vet Brisket with Fillet in season 3 to try to make a first turn goal when receiving (less takeouts needed, and +2 influence for the rest of the game) and to make 2″ dodges for various models on my side. I’m not sure that she makes that line up any more. The dodge is nice, but not necessary, and original Brisket is better at getting that first turn goal and has the extra influence now. I think that she’s more likely to see play with Ox, if at all. Getting rid of conditions could be useful. The real problem with her at this point is just that I would rather put influence on almost any other model if I’m going to make attacks and without influence, she doesn’t do anything. At least original Brisket is better at holding the ball than vet Brisket.

Chapter 34: Original Gangster Brisket

The changes to Brisket are pretty great. She gains a TAC to go to 5. This comes with a different playbook that is 5 long. (The damage dodges are still last two columns, third column is just the GB.) Brisket also gains Above and Beyond (and Vet loses it). It makes more sense to me that this version of Brisket has the more goal scoring aspects since she was supposed to become more bloodthirsty with her vet version.

Let’s look at the damage output Brisket does, since this is Butchers.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/02.003.77
2/1,3/01.953.10
2/2,3/1,4/01.762.46
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/01.331.98
Weighted Average:1.522.22

Brisket’s momentous 2 on 2 means she can pretty reliably hit it, which is why her damage values on an attack are close to 2. Not having momentous damage on 1 messes with her potential damage output, since she can’t make any momentum unless they have the ball to tackle if she only gets 1 result.

Defense
Attack
Charge
2/01.001.82
2/1,3/00.961.41
2/2,3/1,4/00.801.12
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/00.500.92
Weighted Average:0.641.02

As you can see, against low defenses she’s pretty likely to make momentum, but against those 5 defense models she averages a 50/50 whether she makes momentum or not.

Now, Brisket isn’t one of the Butchers models that has high damage output, she’s capped at 2 plus whatever buffs, but she’s a pretty decent ball handler. And one of the things players look for in a striker is access to a good tackle. Well, Brisket has a momentous tackle on 1. Having 5 dice instead of 4 is a big help here. I went ahead and made a table of how likely Brisket was to get her tackle.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.99%100.00%
2/1,3/099.61%100.00%
2/2,3/1,4/096.06%99.87%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/082.80%98.07%
Weighted Average:88.48%98.82%

It’s pretty likely. Even against 5 defense on a normal attack she only goes down to an 82% chance of getting the ball. Still 4 out of 5 attacks will get the result you want. What would be even better, though, is to get a tackle and dodge so she can get back out after she takes the ball. The only way to do this is to wrap, since she doesn’t have a tackle dodge result. Here’s the possibility of a wrap.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Charge
2/095.20%
2/1,3/068.84%
2/2,3/1,4/034.49%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/08.54%
Weighted Average:21.33%

Trying to get a wrap is only a viable strategy if the target has a 3 defense or lower. After that you are getting lucky to wrap. And 3 defense models are not where most teams store the ball. Wrapping should not be your plan.

Worth mentioning about Brisket is that she also has a ranged character play that causes damage and debuffs defense (as well as putting poison out), that is really useful to the team. The damage can help get Shank into the fray, especially on turn 1, and the -1 defense helps absolutely everyone on the team.

She is also by far the best striker on the team (4/8″ kick is no joke) and the best place to store the ball (charmed male and unpredictable movement go a long way here). Really, with above and beyond it’s becoming a lot harder to pick veteran Brisket over OG Brisket.

Chapter 33: The better pig

This article is about Boar. In case the title wasn’t clear.

The changes to Boar are pretty big, but isolated to one are: the playbook. These are all improvements, except for the tackle. The tackle is no longer momentous. This is a trend with the new Butchers. KD is still there. Concussion is still there. If you liked the 4 damage and concussion result, not only is it still there, but it’s down a column. Pushes are untouched. But now instead of a momentous 4 he has a momentous 5, and his last column gains momentous 6. Let’s look at how the math pans out, and talk about how much change that is.

Here is his new expected damage:

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/05.568.21
2/1,3/04.156.95
2/2,3/1,4/03.085.54
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/02.233.77
Weighted Average:2.654.59

The damage on an attack is much higher on the low end (up 1.5 damage against 2/0), but even the high end sees a small increase from lucky spikes up to 5 or 6 damage. Charging sees a decent change overall with at least a .5 damage increase and a weighted average of 1.5 increase. So play Boar into everything long enough and he’ll be doing about 1.5 damage more per charge. The point here is that these increased damage values add to his expected damage output, even if they are at the end of the playbook and that they have more effect the more dice he rolls. Boar is a model that has momentous damage on 1, a lot of dice, and momentous damage throughout his play book, so he’s very likely to make a momentum with each attack. The times he won’t make momentum is when you go for a concussion, which can be clutch, or a KD. I talked about his KD last time I wrote an article about him, to see that go here. In addition to that, know that even though you aren’t going to want to choose KD on a charge, Boar has at worst a 90% chance of getting it. The reason you don’t want to choose KD on the charge is that it will not trigger the berserk attack like damage. If you can wrap and choose KD and damage you can do that berserk attack. So let’s look at the chance to wrap.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Charge
2/096.36%
2/1,3/068.56%
2/2,3/1,4/034.22%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/08.15%
Weighted Average:21.00%

The bad news this shows is that you aren’t likely to wrap on a charge. Boar is going to be at least partially neutralized by a 2″ melee good counter attack. Either they will get off their counter, or you’ll have to choose KD and get one less attack, and a lot less damage, to make sure they can’t counter.

That wraps up this article on Boar. His change affects his charge the most, but is an improvement over the old model. I’ll give this new Boar a go and see if it make enough of a difference to play him more. Probably with Ox.

Chapter 32: She should have been called Bacon

In this article I’m going to go over the changes to Truffles. And that would have been a pretty short article if I had written about Truffles before today, but I haven’t. That is because I never use Truffles. I don’t even have my Truffles painted. I’m going to have to change that. Not that I will be playing Truffles all that often, but if I play any Fillet lineups without Boiler, it’s probably better to play Truffles than Princess. Truffles will at least do nothing, like Princess, but be harder to kill. And if I put any influence on a mascot in that team, then Truffles will do more with it.

So, let’s go over the changes. First, Truffles loses Hog Wild. I said above that I never play her, so I don’t know for sure, but I don’t imagine this character play got used very much. The other change is to the trait Vindictive. It no longer requires a type to reduce charges to 1 influence, all charges on a Vindictive model are 1 influence. And that’s all the changes. No stat changes or anything else. So now for the rest of the math.

I will start with damage from attacks.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/01.573.93
2/1,3/01.193.12
2/2,3/1,4/00.822.42
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/00.531.66
Weighted Average:0.682.02

It’s pretty obvious from the playbook construction and 3 TAC that Truffles will usually one do 1 damage, if that. It is momentous, so she will at least generate momentum with that attack if it hits. Even on a charge, she’s likely to generate 1 momentum.

Damage isn’t likely what you want from her, anyway. So let’s look at the chance of a KD.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/092.59%99.99%
2/1,3/070.47%99.46%
2/2,3/1,4/037.64%95.06%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/018.43%77.35%
Weighted Average:28.33%84.92%

First, if a model has 2 or more armor it is impossible for Truffles to KD them with an attack. Because of this, I have taken them out of the calculations for attacks, but kept them in the calculations for charges. For example, the line that has the defenses to add to 5 only has 5/0 and 4/1 calculated into attacking, but all 4 combinations in the charge calculation.

The chance of Truffles knocking someone down with an attack is pretty bad. Good thing she has vindictive and can charge for 1 influence, because it’s a whole other story when she charges. Even against to 5 defenses she has a decent chance of knocking her target down.

It would be even better if she got a wrap and could do a KD and some damage. So let’s look at that.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/092.59%99.99%
2/1,3/070.47%99.46%
2/2,3/1,4/037.64%95.06%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/018.43%77.35%
Weighted Average:28.33%84.92%

As you can see on the table above, she’s only going to wrap against the low defenses (3s and 2s combined) most of the time.

I can see Truffles being played when Boiler is not (most likely Fillet since Boiler and Ox are a great combo) instead of Princess. If you put one on her she can charge and likely KD an enemy and otherwise stand there, being hard(er) to kill (than Princess). Not very inspiring, but butter than nothing?

Chapter 31: Pretty, Pretty Princess

(I was going to write one article for both mascots, but realized I never wrote a Truffles article, so now you get one for each.)

Princess didn’t change too much with Season 4. He lost the “blood” character play (which affects him in Fillet line ups, but I rarely used). His tackle moved up a column and became non-momentous, which is a trend with season 4 Butchers changes. And, finally, he gained vicious, which is +2 TAC and +1 damage on parting blows. So, Princess got better. The opponent is put in a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. Either you stay in Princess’s melee and get beat up by Boiler or you walk away and take a pretty nasty hit from Princess. Dodges can still get you out, but it’s no longer a good idea to just walk away and take a hit from Princess. Let’s look at the math.

Normally Princess doesn’t do much damage.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/02.475.06
2/1,3/02.024.22
2/2,3/1,4/01.553.31
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/01.032.33
Weighted Average:1.272.79

On a normal attack he does 1-2 damage. He also has a momentous damage result right off the bat, so he usually makes a momentum with each attack (unless you whiff). Now, let’s look at his parting blows, which are awesome. He gets a charge, but with +1 damage.

Defense
Parting Blow Damage
2/07.03
2/1,3/05.99
2/2,3/1,4/04.74
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/03.44
Weighted Average:4.05

Princess does 3 or more damage (often 4) against models that walk away from him. That’s pretty good damage output. In fact, it’s just a little less than the extra damage Boiler would do extra in an activation if they kept the model engaged by Princess (it’s between 2-3 influence worth of attacks from Boiler). Mathematically, this is a good level of damage. It means that the right move is often to walk away (which is what you would want to do before), but the level of damage is similar to what you would take if you stayed (what the Butcher’s player wants to happen). The opponent takes a bigger penalty for what they want to do, but it’s still the right choice. This also helps the opponent. It’s now not as big of a deal to leave a target of Boiler in melee with Princess if there is a more pressing activation since the damage taken by the model would be similar whether you walk away or not (given that Boiler can still get to that model after the move).

Part of what makes the damage so high, more so on the lower defenses, is that Princess is rolling twice as many dice as his playbook is long, and is likely to wrap. I wanted to know how likely he is to wrap on the parting blow. This is also how likely Princess is to wrap on a charge, since it’s the same number of dice.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Parting Blow or Charge
2/096.93%
2/1,3/076.89%
2/2,3/1,4/044.04%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/013.60%
Weighted Average:28.13%

Against most players he isn’t going to wrap, since most players have a defense of 4 or greater. There’s a chance, just not a very good one. But against those low defense, high health models, the ones Boiler loves to pray one, Princess will wrap and do at least as much damage as Boiler would get extra from assist. And don’t forget the extra damage from Ox if Princess is in his aura at the time of the parting blow.

I like the change to Princess. Removing or changing seldom used things to give him a trait that makes the opponent think twice about walking away. I don’t really see Princess going away from my line ups, even if Boiler ends up not making the cut in Fillet.