Category: Winning Ways for your Guild Ball Plays

Chapter 43: Stagger or Singled Out? The answer may surprise you!

So with Veteran Captain Boar (VCB as the cool kids are calling him) comes the question: Which is better, Stagger or Singled Out? I looked at everyone that can play for VCB and did some math with singled out and stagger to see what’s what.

Note: I looked at average damage values to figure out which is better. I looked at damage for a couple reasons: 1. I have excel sheets set up to calculate damage already so it was easy to modify for this; 2. Damage is the bread and butter of the Butchers; and 3. Even though we are looking at damage an increase of damage indicates hitting higher in the playbook and thus is an indication of being able to pick more results that aren’t damage in the playbook. (As an example, I didn’t figure out how much more likely it would be for Shank to hit Thousand Cuts, but the character play that gets him more damage output is the character play that makes it easier to hit Thousand Cuts.)

I found that armor didn’t matter for which character play is better, only the defense and what model is doing the attacking. This is helpful for applying my results in a game because it’s one less variable to consider.

Veteran Captain Boar: The main man himself. As I mentioned in the first article I wrote, Boar wants to use Singled Out against 2 defense and Stagger against defense 4 or 5. Against defense 3 it doesn’t really matter which one the enemy has on them.

Princess: Everyone’s favorite dog. Princess benefits the most from Singled Out against any model that has 2, 3, or 4 defense. Against a model with 5 defense it was almost exactly the same, nothing anyone would notice a difference with.

Truffles: The little piggy who could. I just want to say that if Truffles even gets played it’s probably going to be with VCB. In his case it doesn’t matter what the enemy defense is, Truffles benefits more from Singled Out.

Roast: The big man likes singled out a lot. It’s the best against everything but 5 defense. And against 5 defense it’s so close that it doesn’t really matter which you pick.

Cinnamon: This lass is singled out all the way through. Doesn’t matter who she’s attacking those extra dice help her out the most. An easy to remember thing is that both Cooks can’t go wrong with Singled Out.

Boiler: The kid does best with Singled out against anyone that doesn’t have 5 defense. At 5 defense Stagger is better (but it’s not by much).

Brisket: Brisket has weird playbook since everything above column 1 is 2 damage, so the differences here (especially at 5 defense) are really just about how much she can get past column 1. Against 2 and 3 defense she wants Singled Out. Against 5 defense she wants Stagger . Against 4 defense it doesn’t matter which you pick.

Veteran Brisket: Defense 5 is stagger (but it’s close like with Boiler) and the rest is singled out.

Gutter: Just like with Vet Brisket she’s Singled Out against all but 5 defense, where she barely edges into Stagger being better.

Meathook: She had an interesting result. Against either of the 4 defense stats (4/0 or 4/1) she had absolutely no difference in damage if you added singled out or stagger. Everyone else was close when it didn’t matter (not enough difference to matter, but still a difference), but she came out exactly even. Against 2 or 3 defense it’s singled out and against 5 defense it’s stagger.

Veteran Ox: I expect to see this guy in a lot of Boar lists. Against 2 or 3 defense singled out is the go to. Against 4 defense the math slightly tilts toward stagger, but could be either. Stagger for 5 defense.

Shank: Another one I expect to see played with Boar a lot. He had the same results as Veteran Ox: Singled Out against 2 or 3 defense, Stagger by a hair against 4 defense (even closer than Veteran Ox), and stagger for sure against 5 defense.

Tenderiser: The last one. Singled Out against 2 and 3 defense. Every so slight tilt to Singled Out for 4 defense and stagger for 5 defense.

Now, you could use my data and base your choices on the models selected (and even more in depth, the model you are setting up) to figure out what to pick each time, but there’s a pretty general rule that has emerged:

Pick Singled Out against defenses 2, 3, and 4 and pick Stagger against defense 5 (or higher).

Singled out is clearly the best against defense 2 and 3. Stagger is (not quite as) clearly good against 5 defense with almost every model preferring it. 4 defense was a bit harder to call, but not by much. Only a couple prefer stagger against 4 defense and that’s usually barely.

That does bring use to an exception to the rule. Every good rule has to have an exception: If you are trying to kill a 4 defense model with Veteran Boar, pick Stagger instead of Singled Out. Important to know that exception because that WILL come up.

Thanks for reading today. I should have an article soon where I look at damage output of Boar teams vs. Ox teams. There’s a lot of people worried about Boar and I still think Ox is better and I aim to prove it.

Chapter 42: “Told You!” – Brisket about Boar, The Beast Unleashed

Fist of all: Veteran Boar’s Legendary Play, Chop Chop!, sounds more like a Cook’s Guild play than Butchers. Like, I get what they are going for there, but still. Anyway, on to the actual article.

Vet Boar has a lot going on. I’m going to start with what he does for himself and then on to the support for his team.

First, as is normal for my articles, and especially my articles about Butchers, we will look at his damage output.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/05.678.32
2/1,3/04.427.00
2/2,3/1,4/03.345.68
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/02.343.98
Weighted Average:2.824.76

Boar does more damage, on average, that either Ox or Fillet when the target isn’t bleeding. And he does it more efficiently, usually getting two swings per influence. Plus a free charge some of the time. When you look at the captains already being engaged (no free charge for Boar), then the other captains put out more damage in an activation because they get to make more attacks. Boar only gets 4 attacks while Ox gets 5 and Fillet 6 attacks. If Boar gets a charge off he does more damage than even Fillet attacking a model 6 times that’s already bleeding. Remember, though, that I am talking about averages here, results will vary.

As for momentum generation, if you are taking damage from Boar you are probably getting momentum for it. There is a weird spot in his playbook, though. If you get exactly 5 net hits the highest damage result you can take, 4 damage, is not momentous. It comes with a GB but you will still have to make the choice between momentous 3 and 4 damage GB, but no momentum, at this point. On two net hits you run into a similar choice of either 1 damage and a GB or 2 momentous damage. Depending on what momentum you already have or whether the opponent takes a counter attack will inform this decision and will need to be evaluated on a case by case basis.

Speaking of those GB results, let’s look at them. Veteran Boar has two Guild Ball character plays and they are both really good: Singled Out, which gives +2 TAC when attacking the Singled Out model, and Stagger, which reduces the model’s defense by 1. Both can only be put on models Boar is engaging. Both of these are really good in Butchers. Let’s take a look at how these two character plays affect Boar’s attacks. (Not included is how they affect his charges because it’s very unlikely he will get off one of these character plays, then un-engage himself, and then be able to charge. If you do, it’s good. Make sure you take pushes on the free attacks. You’ll want to make sure they are out on a single push result so you don’t lose two attacks worth of damage.)

Defense
Staggered Damage
Singled Out Damage
2/06.507.17
2/1,3/05.635.80
2/2,3/1,4/04.544.51
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/03.383.12
Weighted Average:3.923.77

Both of these results increase his damage for all other attacks by about 1 on average. On first blush it seems like Stagger is better to pick than Singled Out except against the lowest defense, but I want to be sure. For Boar I broke it down to every possible defense and armor combination in the game. The data came out well for Boar to an easy to remember rule: Defense 2 gets Singled Out, Defense 3 it doesn’t really matter, and Defense 4+ gets stagger. Now, in this case I’m not talking about what the defense and armor add up to, but the ACTUAL defenses. I am going to do this with everyone that works for Veteran Boar to see if this holds up for the others or if there are other variations of this rule. Plan to see that article fairly soon.

Before he can benefit from those Character Plays, he has to trigger them. For the 1 damage GB result on column 2, he’s very likely to get that, even against high defense models:

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/0100.00%100.00%
2/1,3/099.79%100.00%
2/2,3/1,4/097.58%99.85%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/085.08%97.18%
Weighted Average:90.37%98.29%

The better Guild Ball result, with 4 damage attached, is a lot harder to get. You will probably only trigger it against really low defense models or on the charge. Here are the chances:

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/096.93%99.98%
2/1,3/076.89%98.51%
2/2,3/1,4/044.04%89.17%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/013.60%57.34%
Weighted Average:28.13%71.03%

Another relevant result on his playbook is the KD. Good for counter attacks and for preventing counter attacks. Here are the chances he has to hit that:

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.96%100.00%
2/1,3/098.37%99.96%
2/2,3/1,4/089.58%99.08%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/062.45%90.05%
Weighted Average:74.17%93.83%

It’s worth mentioning that his 2 inch push is only 1 column more. With the percentage chance of getting the KD it is also very likely to get the 2 inch push against anyone but the 5 “defense” models. This makes the chance of getting the charge off on someone that has been Singled Out of Staggered more likely (but still kind of Magical Christmas Land, I don’t expect this to be the norm).

So, besides the Character Plays that obviously support the other players but I need to look at in more depth, Boar has his legendary and an aura that allows a player to buy berserk. We will start with the legendary that gives Furious. A free charge (on top of normal influence) is pretty good. Even if all the squaddies on your team get the free charge this is (on average) about 12 additional damage. Comparing that to the other captain’s legendaries it should be doing close to the same amount or more. Ox’s legendary will do the same amount of extra damage over 6-12 attacks and it would take Fillet getting 4 models with bleed to do 12 damage. However, that assumes that 4 squaddies get a charge and your opponent can easily make sure that does happen, especially since the models have to be in the legendary aura (6″) when they make their free charge, not when he legendaries. If Boar legendaries and then charges something your models might no longer be within 6 of Boar.

Berserk also seems like it’s really strong for a Butchers squaddie to gain, and it’s pretty good, but maybe not as good as it first seems. You have to spend 1 influence to gain the berserk leaving only 2-3 influence to make attacks if the model is fully loaded. It doesn’t seem worth doing on the models that only hold 3 influence (unless they are also charging for free) because they only get one additional attack out of it. That means Meathook, Vet Ox, and Cinnamon aren’t getting much benefit. The models that hold 4 end up with 2 extra attacks if it all works out, which is better. Even with those two extra attacks the squaddie only ends up doing 4 extra damage, usually. You should be getting at least 4 extra damage from Ox’s owner aura, probably more each turn.

Looks like the easiest comparison would be to Captain Ox. They have similar defenses, similar output, and similar support. Ox leans more to the support side, letting the team do more damage, and Boar leans more to the personal output side, doing more damage himself (more efficiently). Personally, I think I will still play Ox. I’m going to get games in with Boar and see if that changes my mind. Fillet still brings a lot of differences to match ups that I don’t think Boar really handles: she has high defense and good mobility. He sure does look fun, though.

Chapter 41: Celebrate This?

I don’t think this update to Tenderiser is really a celebration…

I finally (FINALLY!) figured out how to use Tenderiser as a control piece and they change him. I was, foolishly, playing Tenderiser into scoring teams instead of fighting teams. I saw the light and was using him well. Tenderiser mattered and was doing a lot in my games. He will not be used in the same way now.

A rundown of the changes: His KD has moved down one column. That column had two results already, a tackle and a double push, so they were combined into one result. He lost rush keeper completely and it’s replaced by Celebrate THIS!, which automatically does 4 damage to anyone that scores a goal while Tenderiser is within 6″ of the goal. His other trait (the one that raises the TN of making goals by 1) was extended to 6″ and renamed.

Tenderiser is vary firmly in the “Play against scoring teams” category when he gets played now. I’ll have to try him out against teams like Fish, Navigators, and Miners before I make a final decision on him for my teams.

I can see, at least, how Celebrate THIS! could come into play during a game. I find that it’s not uncommon for my Butchers to get an enemy striker down to low health without being able to quite finish them off because they usually have high defense. So this could put a striker in danger of dying when they score a goal. Now, that damage comes after they score a goal, so they are trading their striker for 4 points in that case, a trade they are probably willing to make. It does mean you take out their striker without any extra influence expended, though.

For the math portion of this article all I really only have the change to the KD to talk about. Everything else would be the same math as the last time I wrote about Tendersiser (here).

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.93%100.00%
2/1,3/098.42%99.97%
2/2,3/1,4/089.94%99.42%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/066.01%93.56%
Weighted Average:76.39%96.01%

Against the 2 and 3 defense models the likelihood of getting a KD didn’t change too much, but against the 4 defense it became about 22% more likely and against 5 defense models it became about 33% more likely. Those are pretty good improvements.

Like I said, I am going to give him a go into goal scoring teams with the changes and see how I like him now. And I will morn the Tenderiser of the past and all the great things he did (mostly give my opponents headaches).

Chapter 40: And Finally… Ox

It’s pretty fitting that I bookend this series of articles with Ox. Ox was the first character for Season 4 that I wrote about (because he was the first Butchers model spoiled). And now I end my articles for season 4 Butchers (until Cooks come out) with veteran Ox.

First thing about VOx is that he lost his Get stuck in character play to just gain the new and improved Rowdy. So now he can gain gang ups, but no crowding out penalty. That gets rid of the guild ball on his playbook. Other changes to his playbook are that 1 damage on column 1 is now momentous, and his tackle is not momentous now (no surprise there). Already those are big improvements. Let’s talk about what he lost. He no longer heals himself and no longer has a discount on charging (the Cooks might have something to do with the last one). Instead of healing at the end of activation, and doing damage to those that attack him, Steamforged has kind of combined those two. VOx now does 3 (3!) damage to every model in his melee range at the end of his activation. He doesn’t even have to make attacks to use this, it just happens. His Owner aura has also gone up to 6″ to match the Captain version, but he still has to make a take out.

I don’t have a lot to say about him other than he’s better at what I think he was supposed to do before. His damage is the same as last time I wrote about him (here), but now he will make momentum each time he chooses damage (got to love momentous damage on 1). That extra 3 damage at the end of his activation is really good. I can see that finishing off a model or two and activating the Owner aura to benefit the rest of the team. Fillet loves the Owner aura. It’s time to try him out again, and see if he will make the team. And if not now, Cooks are on the horizon and it will be time to reevaluate each model again.

Chapter 39: Tenderiser? I barely know… there is no way I haven’t already used that joke

Tenderiser has undergone quite a few changes. First he’s gone to 6 TAC and had his playbook reworked to be 6 columns (including a momentous 5 damage on 6). He’s lost seismic kick, but his kick stat changed to 2/6″ (up a die, but down 2″). He now generates 2 influence (by itself this would probably mean he saw the table more for some players). Overall, he’s a lot better. Loses an character play I never used with him. Can be a beater when he needs to be. He lost the combo results on his playbook (no damage push, or damage KD), which I think I will miss, but I think he does what you want him to do better, stand near the goal to make things more difficult for the opposing team.

First, let’s look at his damage potential, if he decides to get into the fight.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/03.606.55
2/1,3/02.745.36
2/2,3/1,4/02.024.16
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/01.342.78
Weighted Average:1.663.43

He does comparable damage to Gutter, a little less on the charge than she does, but pretty similar all around. This puts him in the class below what Boiler and Shank do without buffs. This is still not bad damage, most guilds would probably like someone that does this kind of damage, but not the cream of the crop for Butchers. All his damage is momentous, so he should convert any attack to momentum, unless you are going for a KD or something else.

Speaking of that KD, let’s take a look at it.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.13%100.00%
2/1,3/090.83%99.73%
2/2,3/1,4/067.59%96.89%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/033.63%80.45%
Weighted Average:49.01%87.40%

He’s got a decent KD on an attack, but the real magic happens with a charge. He’s very likely to get the KD on the charge, meaning that he can put a pretty hard stop to a goal run on a Rush Keeper charge, if your opponent lets you. One of the big problems with Tenderiser is that he never gets to do what he wants. People have figured out how to get around counter charge abilities and it doesn’t even take them that long to figure out, so it’s not even using much of their clock. Tenderiser may be better off coming out of the goal and being an active member of the team, especially late game. This feels weird to me since I have traditionally picked him as a model I don’t have to allocate anything to so I can give it all to other models. That might be where I land on him again, but at least he generates 2 influence now so it’s easier to pick him instead of someone else to stand there and do nothing.

Last thing I want to get to is his chance to ground pound on a charge. This is a pretty good result since it includes damage, a push, and KD to multiple models in range.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.13%100.00%
2/1,3/090.83%99.73%
2/2,3/1,4/067.59%96.89%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/033.63%80.45%
Weighted Average:49.01%87.40%

If this is your goal, you will want to target a model with 4 defense or lower to get it off, especially if he’s going to be crowded out. I don’t see this coming up all that often, but it’s there in case you need it.

I don’t think there is any denying that Tenderiser got better. It’s now definitely possible to play him as an active member of the team, but I think I’ll end up keeping him influence free and by the goal, at least with Fillet. I can see Ox hanging back and waiting for the enemy team (if he has the ball) and Tenderiser joining the fray once it arrives.

Chapter 38 – The one where Ross gets Shanked

Let’s dive right into new (old) Shank. Shank can now hold 4 influence again (and still generates 2), but his tackle moved up one column and became non-momentous. He’s probably better than he was before. A little worse at tackling, but that extra influence is exactly what the Butchers players have been asking for.

I haven’t done a real article on Shank, so here we go. First, damage output.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/02.944.87
2/1,3/02.683.94
2/2,3/1,4/02.233.24
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/01.662.58
Weighted Average:1.922.90

If you’ve been playing Guild Ball long enough, the results here are not much of a surprise. Shank is likely to do 2 damage on an attack and 3 on a charge. He should get 1 momentum for each swing. Two damage a swing takes models out, though, and that’s before any buffs. In Ox’s aura, for example, Shank gets an extra expected damage on attacks and charges. Same for Tooled Up. Stacking buffs is a good thing. If Shank, or anyone else, attacks with tooled up, in Owner, against a model with Butchery, he gets +3 damage. Shank would likely take a model from 15 to 0 and still have an influence to Where did he go? away from the fight if he was fully loaded. Shank’s strength though, with his 2″ melee and dodges all around his playbook, is that he can put damage on several models, or get to models that are normally hard to get to (like Obulus). He’s a good finisher. I’ve played him a couple times at the time of this writing and in one game (with Fillet, so he didn’t really have buffs) he took Cosset out after she came back on the pitch and scored a goal in one activation. Cosset is one of the easiest models to take out, but it shows that with the right target Shank can take out those models that come back like he used to, speeding up the game.

Now, let’s talk about the change to his playbook. His tackle is now higher. Here’s the chance of getting that tackle.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.13%100.00%
2/1,3/090.83%99.73%
2/2,3/1,4/067.59%96.89%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/033.63%80.45%
Weighted Average:49.01%87.40%

Against the models that normally hold the ball, Shank will only be able to get a tackle with a charge. This is actually a pretty big change since before he had a decent chance of getting it off any player. Look for opportunities when the ball ends up on a lower defense model for Shank to get in there and take the ball. He’s one of the best models to take advantage of small breaks in the enemy defense on the team, for goal scoring or for trying to take out weak/squishy models.

The last thing I want to talk about in this article is Shank’s ability to make it easier for other models to get take outs. That ability is Thousand Cuts. Here’s the chance of getting it on a charge (and attack is very unlikely, but if you get it you should consider taking it if you are going to make any more attacks into that model).

Defense/Armor
Chance on Charge
2/099.76%
2/1,3/093.70%
2/2,3/1,4/073.82%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/036.24%
Weighted Average:52.92%

The best use for this is to trigger it on someone with lower defense (it’s likely on 3 or 4 defense models) and put it on another, higher defensive model within 6″. Charging into a 2/1 to put thousand cuts on a 5/0 makes it really easy to kill that 5/0 with someone, possibly including Shank himself. I have found myself in the past no choosing this result because of it’s low damage, but I need to remember that I can target someone else, and that -2 defense is a pretty big deal that will lead to a lot more damage if I have other attacks I can get to the target.

Now that Shank can hold 4 influence again I’ll be putting him back on the table. I like the updated playstyle for Butchers, fast and dangerous, and Shank embodies that pretty well.

Chapter 37: The Gutter One

I never got around to writing a veteran Gutter article when she came out, so this will be a full on article with all the bells and whistles.

First, her changes. Gutter’s tackle goes from column 4 to column 2, which is a change in the opposite direction with other Butchers changes, but becomes non-momentous, a change similar to other Butchers. She picks up a double push on column 4. Grapple Hook changed to names to Route One. And, finally, Gutter trades in Resolute for Sweeping Charge.

The last is a pretty big change. It means that if you are going to use Gutter you are going to want her to charge, and it’s going to affect her charge damage a lot. So, let’s take a look at that damage output.

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Gutter does a momentous 1 to most models in the game. If they have 3 combined defense after anatomical it’s usually 2, but a lot of those models have tough hide. Her normal damage output isn’t that great. Her charge output is pretty good, though. She will usually do at least 5 damage to her target, and will do 3 damage to any other models in her melee range. Be careful since it doesn’t say enemy for that charge damage. Whatever the result, if it’s damage it’s going to be momentous.

Also, under Ox, or any other damage buff, you can add +1 damage to attacks and +2 damage to charges and be pretty close to what damage to expect from Gutter.

Her other playbook results are what you would expect. Don’t expect a KD, except on a charge. Same with double push, since it’s the same column. Route one has about a 50/50 chance to get off against the majority of models (the ones that have a 4 combined defense after anatomical). The single push is pretty likely, which helps some with counters. Route one is a decent way to get out of melee on a counter. Don’t do it if they only have 1 attack after, though, since they will get the equivalent of that attack, but at +2 TAC because it’s a parting blow.

Really, Gutter doesn’t do that much damage, except on a charge. Boiler, Shank, or anyone else with 2 damage on 2 will do more than her, even with anatomical precision. 2″ melee is nice to have for a lot of reasons, but I’m having a hard time wanting to fit her in to my lineups with the other options out there. It’s going to come down to how many 2″ melee models I need, because she’s almost last on the 2″ list.

Chapter 36: Meathook’s playing football in someone’s backyard

The ball is really squishy, made of foam, so the kids won’t get hurt. Meathook has a nerf, is what I’m saying.

Not that this comes as a surprise. She was considered an “auto-include” by most of the online community. And really, the changes that were made won’t keep her from getting played. Let’s go over them.

First, she lost smell blood (the +1 damage and +0/+2″ to charges against bleeding targets). With this change I think it’s more likely that Meathook doesn’t do follow up attacks on the same model. Her damage output isn’t very good without that extra +1 damage.

Another change is that her tackle has moved from 2 to 4 and became non-momentous. She also lost her other tackle that had 2 damage attached. Not a surprise since a bunch of other Butchers saw a similar treatment. This one hurt me a little since I’ve used her to steal the ball a lot more than I thought I would have.

Finally, hooked no longer applies a -1 defense that can never be cleared by the opponent, instead it applies snared (and the bleed was rolled in there as well). Being able to clear this certainly hurts the Butchers player, but it was the only way to lower defense that couldn’t be cleared, so not surprising that it changed. She still has the -4/-4 move as a heroic, so she can really lower speed a lot now.

There isn’t a lot of extra math to do with Meathook. My last article on her went over damage (just look at what she is base). Momentum is very likely with momentous damage on 1, even against high defense. She still has tooled up, causes bleed, and lowers defense (even if it may not last as long), so she’s still going to see play, especially with Fillet. I’m thinking she may not make every Ox lineup now, though. I will be experimenting to figure out what I’m going to play.

Chapter 35: New Blood Brisket

Veteran Brisket is supposed to be the “fightier” Brisket, and that’s mostly true now. She retains the 1 influence charges while within 8 of a board edge. She trades Above and Beyond, a goal scoring rule, for Field Medic, a fighting rule. Field Medic allows you to clear conditions on a model within 4″ any time Brisket does damage to an opponent, encouraging her to deal damage more often.

Her playbook has changed quite a bit, too. She no longer has momentous tackle, but does have it non-momentously on 1, and momentous Ball’s Gone on 2 (which is better than a tackle). She also only has one combined result now, a non-momentous Ball’s Gone double dodge on 4, which is a pretty good result. Vet Brisket is less of a pure striker than oBrisket, but still able to do some ball handling and scoring. Let’s take a look at some of the math.

First, of course, is her damage output.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/02.374.49
2/1,3/01.893.71
2/2,3/1,4/01.442.92
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/01.012.04
Weighted Average:1.222.45

This Brisket actually has less expected damage on an attack than the original because her 2 damage isn’t until column 3 (compared to column 2 on original). She does have higher potential, though, since she actually gets to 3 damage. You see this mostly when she charges. Her expected damage on charges is more than original Brisket. AND! Brisket can still sometimes charge for 1 influence, making her charge cost the same as an attack, but more effective, obviously. VBrisket has momentous damage on 1, so she’s also very likely to get momentum each time she attacks. And don’t forget that each time she picks damage she gets to clear conditions on a model within 4″.

Even though vBrisket isn’t as good at scoring as the original, she’s still decent. a 3/8″ kick is pretty good, and Ball’s Gone is better than a tackle. It gets around close control (awesome!) and let’s you pass the ball for free, if you want. The pass is optional. Let’s look at her chance of getting that momentous Ball’s Gone.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.67%100.00%
2/1,3/095.69%99.92%
2/2,3/1,4/079.93%98.82%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/050.42%90.20%
Weighted Average:63.52%93.83%

The Ball’s Gone on two is at worst a 50/50, and that’s against 5 defense on a normal attack. That’s actually not that bad of a chance, and it get’s better from there. On a charge, that might cost 1, the worst chance is 90%, so it should happen most of the time. She’s pretty good at stripping the ball off of models. And given the fact that most Butchers that had momentous tackles don’t any more, it’s nice to have a model that can get the ball if needed. Opens up the chance to score a goal and make the game a little easier to win.

You know what would be better than Ball’s Gone? A Ball’s Gone result with a double dodge. Hey, she has that! It’s not momentous, but is a very good result anyway. Here’s the chance.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/080.38%99.89%
2/1,3/044.78%96.50%
2/2,3/1,4/014.20%82.28%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/02.98%48.25%
Weighted Average:9.53%63.13%

You are probably not going to get this result except on a charge. I’ve had games with both Briskets where I charge in the attempt to steal the ball, try to get dodges to get away, and make a goal. This result is great for that. As long as that 2″ dodge gets you in range of making a goal then there isn’t much that can stop this, especially if she gets out of the opponent’s melee range so they can’t counter.

I’ve been playing vet Brisket with Fillet in season 3 to try to make a first turn goal when receiving (less takeouts needed, and +2 influence for the rest of the game) and to make 2″ dodges for various models on my side. I’m not sure that she makes that line up any more. The dodge is nice, but not necessary, and original Brisket is better at getting that first turn goal and has the extra influence now. I think that she’s more likely to see play with Ox, if at all. Getting rid of conditions could be useful. The real problem with her at this point is just that I would rather put influence on almost any other model if I’m going to make attacks and without influence, she doesn’t do anything. At least original Brisket is better at holding the ball than vet Brisket.

Chapter 34: Original Gangster Brisket

The changes to Brisket are pretty great. She gains a TAC to go to 5. This comes with a different playbook that is 5 long. (The damage dodges are still last two columns, third column is just the GB.) Brisket also gains Above and Beyond (and Vet loses it). It makes more sense to me that this version of Brisket has the more goal scoring aspects since she was supposed to become more bloodthirsty with her vet version.

Let’s look at the damage output Brisket does, since this is Butchers.

Defense
Attack Damage
Charge Damage
2/02.003.77
2/1,3/01.953.10
2/2,3/1,4/01.762.46
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/01.331.98
Weighted Average:1.522.22

Brisket’s momentous 2 on 2 means she can pretty reliably hit it, which is why her damage values on an attack are close to 2. Not having momentous damage on 1 messes with her potential damage output, since she can’t make any momentum unless they have the ball to tackle if she only gets 1 result.

Defense
Attack
Charge
2/01.001.82
2/1,3/00.961.41
2/2,3/1,4/00.801.12
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/00.500.92
Weighted Average:0.641.02

As you can see, against low defenses she’s pretty likely to make momentum, but against those 5 defense models she averages a 50/50 whether she makes momentum or not.

Now, Brisket isn’t one of the Butchers models that has high damage output, she’s capped at 2 plus whatever buffs, but she’s a pretty decent ball handler. And one of the things players look for in a striker is access to a good tackle. Well, Brisket has a momentous tackle on 1. Having 5 dice instead of 4 is a big help here. I went ahead and made a table of how likely Brisket was to get her tackle.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Attack
Chance on Charge
2/099.99%100.00%
2/1,3/099.61%100.00%
2/2,3/1,4/096.06%99.87%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/082.80%98.07%
Weighted Average:88.48%98.82%

It’s pretty likely. Even against 5 defense on a normal attack she only goes down to an 82% chance of getting the ball. Still 4 out of 5 attacks will get the result you want. What would be even better, though, is to get a tackle and dodge so she can get back out after she takes the ball. The only way to do this is to wrap, since she doesn’t have a tackle dodge result. Here’s the possibility of a wrap.

Defense/Armor
Chance on Charge
2/095.20%
2/1,3/068.84%
2/2,3/1,4/034.49%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/08.54%
Weighted Average:21.33%

Trying to get a wrap is only a viable strategy if the target has a 3 defense or lower. After that you are getting lucky to wrap. And 3 defense models are not where most teams store the ball. Wrapping should not be your plan.

Worth mentioning about Brisket is that she also has a ranged character play that causes damage and debuffs defense (as well as putting poison out), that is really useful to the team. The damage can help get Shank into the fray, especially on turn 1, and the -1 defense helps absolutely everyone on the team.

She is also by far the best striker on the team (4/8″ kick is no joke) and the best place to store the ball (charmed male and unpredictable movement go a long way here). Really, with above and beyond it’s becoming a lot harder to pick veteran Brisket over OG Brisket.