Month: April 2016

Aside: Season 2 doesn’t have a lack of 2″ Reach

I have seen/heard many podcasts, posters, and others talk about how 2″ melee is at a premium in season 2. That they are putting 2″ melee on less models. While this is technically true, that is only because there are less models. If you look at the actual percentage of models that have 2″ melee in the two seasons, they are the same. One third of all models have a 2″ melee. That is true for season 1, season 2, and overall. (What follows is the actual percentages. You will notice that season two is a slightly lower percentage, but if even one model from season 2 changed from 1 inch to 2 inch melee then it would be slightly higher than 1/3. So that change if effectively insignificant.)

Season 1
Season 2
Overall
2 Inch melee33.90%31.71%33.00%

Chapter 6: Aura of the Commanding Variety

So far there are two models with Commanding Aura in the game, Blackheart and Tapper. I don’t currently (although we all end up playing Union) play either of the these factions, but I was asked to run the math for activating Commanding Aura. I found the chances of getting a commanding aura result with 1 attack, 2 attacks, and on a charge. I did this because Commanding Aura cost 2 influence to activate 100% of the time. 2 attacks and a charge are also 2 influence, so those are directly comparable. I added the one attack because that is the ideal situation, to get Commanding Aura off of one influence instead.

First, Blackheart:

Pay 2
Make 1 Attack
Make 2 Attacks
Make a Charge
Pay 3Make 1 AttackMake 2 AttacksMake a Charge
2/0100.00%93.77%99.61%99.97%
2/1,3/0100.00%72.55%92.46%99.41%
2/2,3/1,4/0100.00%34.74%57.42%89.64%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/0100.00%10.39%19.70%60.19%

My conclusion: It’s worth a try by attacking on a 2/0, 2/1, or 3/0 player. The first hit is likely, and by the second it it is pretty much guaranteed. On a charge you can also get it pretty reliably on the 2/2, 3/1, and 4/0 players as well. If it’s any other player you really need to just pay for it without the attack. Especially Wrecker. Wrecker is IMPOSSIBLE to get commanding aura off of a regular attack and unlikely even on a charge (50%).

Second, Tapper:

Pay 2
Make 1 Attack
Make 2 Attacks
Make a Charge
Pay 2Make 1 AttackMake 2 AttacksMake a Charge
2/0100.00%73.68%93.07%99.76%
2/1,3/0100.00%33.82%56.20%97.23%
2/2,3/1,4/0100.00%9.56%18.20%74.33%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/0100.00%1.63%3.24%36.50%

Conclusion: Unless Tapper is attack one of the two 2/0 players then making a regular attack just isn’t going to cut it. A charge is more likely with the first two rows of players likely, and there are even times when I would try with the 5/0, and “equivalent,” players. Once again Wrecker is basically impossible to get commanding aura off on, but also, any model that has 2 armor makes it impossible for Tapper to get off his Commanding Aura on a regular attack. I have not included any of the armor values that are impossible in the math. For example, on the line that includes 2/3, 3/2, 4/1, and 5/0 the charge value is calculated with all of those (because they are still possible), but does not include the 2/3 and 3/2 in the regular attack because they are not possible.

Overall, the math backs up what I’m sure most players have figured out: Unless you are attack someone with a low defense plus armor (2 or 3) just pay for Commanding Aura. Commanding Aura is worth the payment, guys. It’s such a good buff.

 

 

Season 3 Update

First, Blackheart has a 0% chance of getting up commanding aura in all situations, since he doesn’t have it any more.

Tapper is a lot more likely to get Commanding Aura off the playbook now that it is down one result (to 4). As in 20%+ more likely against everyone whose defenses don’t add up to 5 and way more likely to trigger it on a charge against those “defense” 5 models. Here is the new table:

Pay 2
Make 1 Attack
Make 2 Attacks
Make a Charge
Pay 2Make 1 AttackMake 2 AttacksMake a Charge
2/0100.00%93.77%99.61%99.97%
2/1,3/0100.00%70.46%91.27%98.77%
2/2,3/1,4/0100.00%34.88%57.60%90.14%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/0100.00%10.59%20.06%59.39%

Where There’s Smoke, There’s Fire

Hello again everyone! I know it has been a long time since I set my goal to start this blog, but I had a lot of life stuff get in the way and it took away a lot of my spare hobby time. Anyways, enough excuses. Today we are here to do a complete breakdown of Smoke, the new Alchemists captain! Let’s begin.

Stat Line

We’ll kick it off with the movement stat. With a jog of 4″ and a sprint of 6″, it would seem as if Smoke is very slow. There will be more analysis later, but I basically treat this as if the movement stat is a bonus 4-6″ of movement for Smoke. Next up is the TAC. With a TAC of 4, Smoke is not really a combat mastermind. With a tackle on her 2 result of the playbook, she will mainly only be directly attacking models in possession of the ball token. Smoke’s kick stat of 4/6″ really enables her to be a fairly effective scorer once you add in her teleport and normal movement. Again, more on that shortly. Possessing a DEF of 4+, ARM 1, and 16 health makes Smoke pretty survivable once you add in all of the cover that Alchemists have access to.

Character Plays

Smoke Bomb is an excellent character play, especially when you take into account the Cloud Jumper special rule. It also allows for Smoke to benefit from cover. Alchemy Mix is another great character play. Great uses for this include copying her own Smoke Bomb, Mercury’s Fire Blast, Calculus’ Noxious Blast, and many others. Chemical Breeze can be very good if your opponent positions so that they are just out of a continuous effect AOE. They really just can’t get away from Smoke!

Character Traits

Cloud Jumper is really what makes Smoke unique. So far, I have found it much more effective to help Smoke become a scoring threat. With a sprint, Smoke Bomb, and the teleport, Smoke can move effectively 14″. Smoke can also Sprint, get a tackle on a 2 result, make a cloud, teleport, and score. The possibilities are endless! I could dedicate an entire article just to this trait (and I will soon). The next trait, Momentous Inspiration, is extremely good for Alchemists. It allows them to generate MP from character plays that hit and cause damage while within the 4″ aura. That really helps Alchemists with their MP generating issues they can some times face. Finally, we get to Unpredictable Movement. Smoke already has some amazing movement shenanigans, so why not this too? Granted, this is not as effective as it could be if she had a 2″ melee. A lot of savvy players will be able to play around this, but it’s good to have just in case.

Legendary Play

Chemical Shower is a pretty good Legendary Play for Smoke. She can some times suffer with damage output, and it is nice to be able to put a final 3 points of damage on 2-3 enemy players. That is the best use for it I have played out so far.

Closing Thoughts

As a dedicated Alchemists player, Smoke could not make me more happy. She really makes the guild play the way I feel like they should. Her control game really makes a good complement to Midas. Later on I’ll be posting more articles on Smoke. This one was just to give a general overview for people who may be new to her. Enjoy! The next article we will be recommendations for models to play with her.

-StarLord

Aside: Defense Distribution (Season 2 Added)

I have added the season 2 models to the defense distribution chart I use to help me with the math. It is included below. Also, I am going to go through and do an analysis on each player available to Butchers and work out all math I see as relevant and doing a write up. Similar to what I’ve done with Fillet. I might revisit the players I have already done at the end together just to do a little update (mostly this is the get full math for Boiler, who I shortcut a little).

Def/Arm
Alchemists
Brewers
Butchers
Engineers
Fishermen
Hunters
Masons
Morticians
Union
Total
2/0112
2/111114
2/21113
2/311
3/011
3/126232232123
3/2113117
4/03413213
4/142463213530
5/031111222114

Chapter 5: I’d rather Fillet than empty it

I had the opportunity to get a Fillet early (by beating Rich Loxam and Mat Hart at the Bourbon Trail Open). I have since then played every game with her. She has been great. A lot different than playing Ox. She is more mobile and does more herself. As I heard someone else say, Fillet is the Shark of killing people.

Before we get to the numbers (and we will be looking at numbers, or this wouldn’t feel like a WWfyGP article), a little bit of my overall impressions. First, she really gets around the pitch. I have had no trouble getting her to a target. I even got her to Obulous in the last game I played (and I always have a hard time pinning him down). Between the increased speed she has over other models, added with the dodges she has (the playbook ones are nice, but the free one for damaging someone with bleed is even better). 2. Her legendary is amazing. I regularly get at least 9 damage out of it, often that inlcudes a takeout (or 2, or one game: 3).

Now comes the math. The big thing with the Butcher’s is damage, of course. I spent some time looking at the expected damage of different models here that is:

Boiler
Boiler with Princess
Boar
Ox
BoilerBoiler with PrincessBoarOx
Regular Attack1.83.32.62.5
Charge Attack2.85.03.43.6

That was 4 defense and 0 armor (no extra bonuses except for the Ox’s Owner on himself).

I ran a much more extensive expected value on Fillet. I did every defense/armor combination in the game. Looking at these I saw that things like 3/2, 4/1, and 5/0 really were basically the same, so I grouped them in the final numbers for simplification. (I did weight the numbers based on how many of each combination actually showed up. For example, in the 3/2, 4/1, 5/0 group, there are a lot more models with 4/1 than the other two so it has more weight in the final number.)

Here is the table:

Defense/Armor
Regular Attack
Charge Attack
Defense/ArmorRegular AttackCharge Attack
2/03.815.75
2/1,3/02.435.02
2/2,3/1,4/02.383.87
3/2,4/1,5/01.732.74

Looking at the 4/0 line to compare it to the previous table shows a couple things. 1. Fillet is just short of Ox and Boar with a regular attack and just above them on damage with a charge. This is before you add the extra damage when the target has bleed. Add one to the values on the table above and she outshines either of those models in damage. 2. She is best compared to Boiler for damage. Both of her damage values aren’t far from Boiler’s values with the dog. This, again, is before the extra damage from bleed. This is what makes her so amazing in my eyes. Boiler was my biggest damage dealer. WAS. Fillet can do a damage more per hit (if the target is bleeding) and hold two more influence. She puts out so much damage. I haven’t run an expect damage value calculation on everyone in the game, but would be really surprised if she wasn’t the top damage dealer in the game.

This shows how much better she is if her target is bleeding. Good thing she has ways to make the enemies bleed. One way to make them bleed is Pain Circle. With her speed and 8 inch range she can get the circle wherever she wants. Where she wants to put it is anywhere she can get multiple enemies. Spread the bleed around! If she is close enough to put the Pain Circle on them then she is close enough to get to them on the next turn. Having said that, I only use Pain Circle in two situations: the first turn and when she has two more on here and gets pushed away from everyone she can attack (after she has already moved). Tough hid ignores it and it’s not very efficient for influence so it’s not a go to ability.

The second way she puts out bleed is Blood Rain. Blood Rain has been great so far. Putting so much bleed out in one attack is great. Then he damage gets turned up a notch. So lets look at how likely it is to get that Blood Rain (group in similar defense/armor groups as before).

Regular Attack
Charge Attack
Regular AttackCharge Attack
2/099.54%100.00%
2/1,3/095.02%99.86%
2/2,3/1,4/071.07%95.95%
3/2,4/1,5/035.02%77.05%

As you can see, on a charge the worst it gets is about 1 out of 4 times you fail to pull off the Blood Rain. Which is pretty likely. If you walk up and do it you probably want to target those models whose defense and armor add up to 4 or less, and really those that add up to 3 or less. At that point you are very likely to get Blood Rain off in one hit and can start doing real damage. Getting Blood Rain off on a lot of enemies is also a good time to apply the legendary.

Next thing I want to mention is a word that appears on her card: Striker. She’s actually a pretty good one. She kicks at 3 dice which is pretty good. That’s an 87.5% chance of getting the goal and even if she’s down a die she has a 75% chance. Those change to 70% and 55% if it’s TN 5. Her distance is the only real problem, being only 6 inches, but she has so much move and dodges she has not had trouble getting where she needs to go. She also has a momentous tackle on one hit, which helps with this. At this point Ox has made more goals than Fillet for me, but that’s only because of how many more games I’ve played with him.

Last, let’s talk lineup. Right now I’ve been using Princess, Boiler, Rage, Shank, and Brisket. Sometimes I’ll throw Tenderiser in there instead of Brisket or Shank. Everyone wants influence in that list (except Rage). The key I have found so far with this list is to just decide each turn who can get the most benefit from the influence and give it to those players (usually 2 of them, maybe spread it to 3). I really want to try Avarisse and Greede with her, though. Avarisse can use the influence he brings, if he gets any, and Greede doesn’t need his at all. I don’t know who to drop for him though, since I really like every single model in my list. I probably just need to break myself of playing Brisket all the time…

Summary: Fillet is the best damage dealer in Butcher’s, possibly the game. She’s pretty good at kicking and excellent at getting wherever she is needed. I like her.