Chapter 6: Aura of the Commanding Variety

So far there are two models with Commanding Aura in the game, Blackheart and Tapper. I don’t currently (although we all end up playing Union) play either of the these factions, but I was asked to run the math for activating Commanding Aura. I found the chances of getting a commanding aura result with 1 attack, 2 attacks, and on a charge. I did this because Commanding Aura cost 2 influence to activate 100% of the time. 2 attacks and a charge are also 2 influence, so those are directly comparable. I added the one attack because that is the ideal situation, to get Commanding Aura off of one influence instead.

First, Blackheart:

Pay 2
Make 1 Attack
Make 2 Attacks
Make a Charge
Pay 3Make 1 AttackMake 2 AttacksMake a Charge
2/0100.00%93.77%99.61%99.97%
2/1,3/0100.00%72.55%92.46%99.41%
2/2,3/1,4/0100.00%34.74%57.42%89.64%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/0100.00%10.39%19.70%60.19%

My conclusion: It’s worth a try by attacking on a 2/0, 2/1, or 3/0 player. The first hit is likely, and by the second it it is pretty much guaranteed. On a charge you can also get it pretty reliably on the 2/2, 3/1, and 4/0 players as well. If it’s any other player you really need to just pay for it without the attack. Especially Wrecker. Wrecker is IMPOSSIBLE to get commanding aura off of a regular attack and unlikely even on a charge (50%).

Second, Tapper:

Pay 2
Make 1 Attack
Make 2 Attacks
Make a Charge
Pay 2Make 1 AttackMake 2 AttacksMake a Charge
2/0100.00%73.68%93.07%99.76%
2/1,3/0100.00%33.82%56.20%97.23%
2/2,3/1,4/0100.00%9.56%18.20%74.33%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/0100.00%1.63%3.24%36.50%

Conclusion: Unless Tapper is attack one of the two 2/0 players then making a regular attack just isn’t going to cut it. A charge is more likely with the first two rows of players likely, and there are even times when I would try with the 5/0, and “equivalent,” players. Once again Wrecker is basically impossible to get commanding aura off on, but also, any model that has 2 armor makes it impossible for Tapper to get off his Commanding Aura on a regular attack. I have not included any of the armor values that are impossible in the math. For example, on the line that includes 2/3, 3/2, 4/1, and 5/0 the charge value is calculated with all of those (because they are still possible), but does not include the 2/3 and 3/2 in the regular attack because they are not possible.

Overall, the math backs up what I’m sure most players have figured out: Unless you are attack someone with a low defense plus armor (2 or 3) just pay for Commanding Aura. Commanding Aura is worth the payment, guys. It’s such a good buff.

 

 

Season 3 Update

First, Blackheart has a 0% chance of getting up commanding aura in all situations, since he doesn’t have it any more.

Tapper is a lot more likely to get Commanding Aura off the playbook now that it is down one result (to 4). As in 20%+ more likely against everyone whose defenses don’t add up to 5 and way more likely to trigger it on a charge against those “defense” 5 models. Here is the new table:

Pay 2
Make 1 Attack
Make 2 Attacks
Make a Charge
Pay 2Make 1 AttackMake 2 AttacksMake a Charge
2/0100.00%93.77%99.61%99.97%
2/1,3/0100.00%70.46%91.27%98.77%
2/2,3/1,4/0100.00%34.88%57.60%90.14%
2/3,3/2,4/1,5/0100.00%10.59%20.06%59.39%

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