Aside: I may have rolled well, but I didn’t need to (An Open Letter to Mat Hart)

Mat Hart was recently on the first episode of Hall of Legends first cast (Check out Hall of Legends here. I really enjoyed the first episode.). On the cast Mat talks about his experiences with Atrisherman list, most notably at the Bourbon Trail open, where I was the Butcher’s player that he played second round. Mat has a good memory of that game and I was indeed worried when he got a goal and then a snap shot with Sakana in two activations. I thought I could lose at that point after dominating the game up until then. But all that is not the point of this blog, the point of the blog is to address the comment of me taking out Fangtooth by luck.

Mat was right about the fact that I used Ox’s legendary that turn (It meant that Ox could take out Siren without much of a problem with 4 influence). He did not mention who got to take out Fangtooth, and that was Boiler. Not only had I used Ox’s Legendary play, and Boiler was in range of Owner, but Princess was already in position engaging Fangtooth from the previous turn. I also had Shank engaging Fangtooth (more on this in a second). With those conditions (8 tac and +3 damage) Boiler has a 65% chance of killing Fangtooth (even with wasting the first influence to gluttonous mass).

But that wasn’t even the whole situation. Because before Boiler went, Shank did. Shank actually wasted an influence triggering gluttonous mass and did some amount of damage to Fangtooth. Now I don’t remember how much damage Fangtooth had on him when Boiler started, but if he even had 5 damage on him, bringing him down to 24 health, Boiler’s chance of killing Fangtooth jumps to 88%. I would not call that lucky, I would call that likely.

Now Mat claims that I rolled a lot of 5s and 6s. I have absolutely no reason to doubt him, but I didn’t need 5s and 6s against models with such low defenses. If all my hits had been 2s I still would have done the same amount of damage. I set things up to maximize success in removing a normally tough model to remove. Gettin a rough idea of expected damage isn’t too hard in guild ball (I am not as precise as I am in these articles when I have Google Sheets to back me up) and I had processed the numbers and decided that even if I didn’t kill Fangtooth (which I felt was likely) he would be in bad shape. Where I might have been lucky was not in the killing of Fangtooth (with Legendary any one player can be killed pretty easily), but in killing Kraken and, I believe, Corsair without the benefit of the legendary.

Mat was a great opponent and guy. I hope I get to hang out with him and play him again sometime. He played a really good game, turning it around after I was sure I would win. I even got to play Rich in a fun game first round. In fact, all my games at the Bourbon Trail Open where fun and exciting. If there is another tournament in Kentucky that aligns with my schedule I will be sure to go back.

PS: Screw that otter. And Sakana, just for good measure.

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