Chapter 18: Bonesaw can score goals

So, there are a lot of people hating on Bonesaw. I understand. He shtick seems to revolve around Football Dervish to pass the ball to an ally and then pass it back to gain mp. I agree that this is not a good plan. With the kick stats of the Morticians this is bound to fail too often to be reliable.

I have another proposal: Bonesaw is good at scoring goals, and Meditation is what makes that possible. Here is the chances of getting off a goal after meditating:

Number of Dice
TN 3
TN 4
TN 5
188.89%75.00%55.56%
298.77%93.75%80.25%
399.86%98.44%91.22%
499.98%99.61%96.10%
5100.00%99.90%98.27%

It makes the worse chance a coin flip if it’s target number 5 and he gets down to 1 die. That is a useful shortcut if you know what the chances are with different amounts of dice. That means if you have to influence to meditate before a shot you have the same chance as double the dice. That makes the extra die from bonus time like two extra dice. TFor example: if you would normally be rolling 2 dice and you bonus time and then meditate then you have to the same chance as rolling 6 dice. Bonesaw turns a bad situation into a near likely goal.

Let’s put Bonesaw in the worst possible situation: Crowded out to 1 dice shooting against Butchers with Tenderizer (needs a 5). On one dice that has a 33% chance of succeeding. If you meditate it, it goes up to 56%. The same chance if you meditate it that shot instead, since meditation essentially doubles the dice. If you bonus time and then meditate the shot it goes up to 80%. He should make that shot 4 out of 5 times he tries it. I think that’s pretty great.

Now this does take resources to do. Every Meditation that you pay for during the game costs you 1 influence (so the shot would cost 2 influence, total). I don’t see the problem in spending 2 influence to make 4 vp as too much of an investment though, since a lot of players spend that or more regularly to make goals. It also helps his defenses after he makes that first goal, letting him survive to make another one.

Note: As it was pointed out to me after I wrote this, Meditation is only during your activation. Therefore, a meditated snap shot can only occur if he football legends into it, which is just asking for something to go wrong. With that in mind I left the paragraph because all the information is correct.

Speaking of that, I wonder how good he is at snap shooting. In general it’s only a good idea to snapshot if you are within 4 of the goal with 2 dice or have 3+ dice. And that is still only a coin flip. It’s never really a good idea to snap shot on a 5+. Meditation makes snap shots 20% more likely all around. Snap shots are a really risky play, mathematically, unless you can get a lot of dice so I would advise against it. If you are going to make goals with Bonesaw you want to Meditate regular kicks on goal and not try for a snap shot.

As a side note: Charging with Bonesaw and getting a wrap for double Unexpected Arrival is also pretty good.

Def/Arm
Chance to Double Unexpected Arrival
2/060.47%
2/123.26%
3/019.51%
3/13.90%
4/03.52%
4/10.39%
5/00.26%

Not very likely in most instances (Stave is the ideal target), but I’ve had it done to Fillet when she got knocked down and crowded out, so it can happen.

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View question time! I was asked to find the probability of Bonesaw getting a double Unexpected Arrival on a Charge, with Confidence up. So here we go:

Def/Arm
Chance to Double Unexpected Arrival with Confidence
2/02.98%
2/12.77%
3/098.16%
3/121.65%
4/077.59%
4/128.16%
5/025.27%

This makes getting it on Stave (2/0) almost guaranteed at 98%. 4/1 is the most common defense in the game and you now have a 10% chance of getting that double Unexpected arrival. I would not really expect to get the double with confidence above the 3/0 defense marker, which is much better than only getting it half the time against Stave and no one else.

9 comments

    1. You are correct. Added a note about that. It’s still possible to snap shot with meditation and football dervish so I left in the math.

  1. I’m recently giving Bonesaw a try and this article has really helped with that decision. I was wondering if you could see how likely it is to get double Unexpected Arrival after giving him confidence.
    Thanks

    1. I sure can. It might take me a couple days to get to it, but I’ll run the numbers and add it to the article.

  2. Hello,
    Me again. I’m trying to make my own excel spreadsheet to show probability outcomes but I haven’t been able to figure out the rerolling probabilities. Most online articles say it’s the same as rolling twice the number of dice. If I do that, I don’t get your numbers. Could you explain how (or provide the equation) you got your #s?
    Thanks in advance.

    1. Sure thing. In order to get double Unexpected Arrival you have to get 7 hits out of the 8 dice he gets on a charge. Let’s do the math for a 4/0 defense as an example of what you need to do. We need to find the probability of getting 7 success on those 8 dice and then the probability of getting 8 successes on those 8 dice and add them together (since those are the only two results that give us what we want). The probability of getting 7 success would be combin(8,7)*(1/4)*(3/4)^7, or the number of combinations of 8 dice with 7 success times the probability of a miss (1/2 chance the first roll times 1/2 chance the second roll = 1/4) raised to the number of failures (1), times the chance of a success (1-chance of failure) raised to the number of successes, or .267. The chance of 8 successes out of 8 dice would be combin(8,8)*(1/4)^0*(3/4)^8 or 1*1*0.100=0.100. Add those together and you get .367 or 36.7%. For any player that has 1 armor it would only work if you had 8 out of 8 success and any more armor makes it impossible to do. I hope this explanation helped. The defense of the player will change the probability fractions used, for example, 3 defense has a 1/9 chance of missing and a 8/9 chance of succeeding.

      Note: I haven’t run the math, but rerolling obviously isn’t actually the same as rolling double dice, but it’s probably close enough to get a close number to the actual number.

  3. Your explanation helps a lot. I was able to figure out the equation in excel. Just to test it though, lets add Singled Out to Bonesaw’s 4/0 target which would now make him at 10 dice plus re-rolls, I get a 77.59% chance of success. Against a 3/0 target with Singled Out and Confidence, I get a 98.16% chance of success. Do you confirm?

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