Playing Butchers generates a lot of Momentum. It’s a valuable resource and managing it is very important. It can do a lot during the turn to help your team, but I like to go first. In the past I have shot to be at least 4 ahead, and 5 was ideal. I got the first turn for sure if I got that far ahead. The more I play and the closer the games become it’s more and more important that I use my Momentum to help out my team. So, I needed to know the chances of going first in different scenarios so I could manage my chance of going first. I crunched some numbers and then rounded them to more easily remembered odds/percentages so I am informed while spending Momentum of how it affects my chances of going first. Here is that table (Note: At 5 difference it is 100% chance of the person ahead going first, so it’s not on the table.):
Momentum Difference | Chance of going first | Percent chance |
|---|---|---|
| Down 4 | 1/25 | 4 |
| Down 3 | 1/10 | 10 |
| Down 2 | 1/5 | 20 |
| Down 1 | 1/3 | 33.33333333 |
| Even | 1/2 | 50 |
| Up 1 | 2/3 | 66.66666667 |
| Up 2 | 4/5 | 80 |
| Up 3 | 9/10 | 90 |
| Up 4 | 24/25 | 96 |